Scientific method

Can luck undermine expert predictions?

Imagine you're betting on the outcome of a coin toss, expecting heads every time.

You bet on heads, but it lands on tails. This is epistemic luck; you guessed right not because of knowledge, but chance.

Example

You bet on heads 100 times; 95 wins by luck, not skill.

Remember this

Epistemic luck shows predictions aren't always skill-based, just chance.

Text adapted from Wikipedia, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Related concepts

Knowledge

Can you truly know something if luck plays a role in your belief?

Gettier problem

Can we truly know something if luck plays a role in the truth we believe?

Replication crisis

Replication crisis undermines scientific credibility

Falsifiability

Popper introduced falsifiability as a criterion for scientific theories

Underdetermination

Evidence may support multiple theories

Scientific realism

Scientific realism posits unobservable entities have the same ontological status as observables

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