Can your predictions be off even when you're trying to be fair?
Image: Jashuah, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Bias of an estimator
Can your predictions be off even when you're trying to be fair?
Imagine you're planning a picnic and want to know if it will rain. You check the weather forecast, which is supposed to be unbiased.
Even if the forecast tries to be fair, it might still lean towards raininess or sunniness, not always hitting the mark. This is because the forecast could have a slight bias.
Example
If the forecast says there's a 70% chance of rain, but it actually rains 80% of the time when the forecast says there's a 70% chance...
Remember this
Recognizing bias helps you understand that predictions aren't always perfect, even when they're supposed to be unbiased.
Text adapted from Wikipedia, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
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Educational content, not financial advice.
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