Ever wonder why your average score on quizzes improves with more quizzes?
Image: Jouasse, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Ever wonder why your average score on quizzes improves with more quizzes?
Imagine you're tracking your daily coffee consumption to see if it affects your productivity. You record how many cups you drink each day and whether you feel more productive.
As you keep track of more days, your average coffee consumption and productivity levels start to resemble the true average for everyone who drinks coffee, not just you.
Example
Over 30 days, you drink an average of 3 cups a day and feel moderately productive. Over 300 days, your average consumption might be closer to 3 cups a day, with productivity levels stabilizing around the same point.
Remember this
The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) explains why your sample mean (average coffee consumption, productivity) gets closer to the population mean (true average coffee consumption, productivity) as you record more data.
Text adapted from Wikipedia, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
Law of large numbers
Law of large numbers: X̄_ n → μ as n → ∞ with probability 1
Central limit theorem
Central limit theorem states that sample means converge to normal distribution as sample size increases
the vocabulary size matters: larger vocab = shorter sequences but more parameters
Larger vocab leads to shorter sequences but more parameters
importance sampling does: reweights samples from proposal to estimate target expectation
Importance sampling estimates target expectations using samples from a different distribution
Neural scaling law
Chinchilla scaling law: optimal model size scales linearly with compute budget
Effect size
Cohen's D benchmarks: 0.2 = small, 0.5 = medium, 0.8 = large effect
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